Immigration reform Is not the key to the Latino vote

To be clear, the share of Latino voters who would consider voting for Ryan increases by 14 percentage points. Note that the question isn’t presented in binary fashion, i.e., these voters are being asked if they’d consider voting for Ryan in isolation, without any consideration as to whether Ryan might have a Democratic opponent in this notional presidential election (I assume he would) or what this Democratic opponent might say about immigration policy. Vavreck also ignores the possibility that there might be some other set of issues that might increase the share of Latino voters who would consider voting for a Republican candidate. For example, low- and moderate-income Latino voters might be more inclined to back Ryan if he favored a large expansion of the child credit, a policy that Democrats might have a difficult time matching in light of their competing domestic policy priorities.

Vavreck concludes on the following note:

The Republican Party can compete with Democrats for the votes of Latinos, even young Latinos, without alienating the majority of its voters. But to earn support from this fast-growing segment of the American population, these survey results suggest the party is going to need leaders and candidates strong enough to stand up to the few who have hijacked its policy on immigration.