It would be easier to test Walker’s claim that his conservative policies attracted nonideological swing voters if there were a lot of those voters in the state of Wisconsin. As Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel laid out in his wonderful series on polarization in the state, Wisconsin is purple not because it has a vast population of intermingled viewpoints; it is instead a state where deep red lives next to deep blue. In this election, the number of voters who are up for grabs—who haven’t come to a settled view about Walker, and who are likely to turn out in a nonpresidential year—is likely to be low.

The Walker team’s strategy is to rely on his rock-solid support among likely Republican voters and to pick up a small number of independents who will give him the benefit of the doubt. Incumbent governors don’t usually lose, and at least some swing voters have now voted for Walker in two elections. In the Marquette poll, 7 percent of the respondents approved of the job Obama was doing and the job Walker was doing. “An incumbent governor running for what is essentially a second re-election, with more money than God, has to be the odds-on favorite,” Franklin says.

Walker has $7.1 million in his campaign bank account and a considerable national network of donors. He built a list of donors from all over the nation defending against the recall, which became a pitched ideological battle. A recent report shows that he has received more out-of-state money than Burke, who has $1.7 million in her campaign chest plus plenty in her personal bank account—one of the key attractions of her candidacy for party officials. Burke put in $430,000 when she got into the race and has promised to spend more.