Six months from now Russian agents will still be operating in Ukraine and planning similar uprisings in other former Soviet states.

The United States lacks sufficient military assets in Europe to deter Russian aggression, and Europe’s most powerful state, Germany, lacks the will to stand up to Russia. President Obama has been too successful at paying for entitlements by cutting the defense budget, and German businesses are profiting too much from commerce with Russia.

Obama naively misjudged Putin. There is no reset button for relations with a regime led by a criminal. Putin has plundered businesses, crushed dissent and killed journalists. To believe he can be persuaded through diplomacy or imposing minor economic costs is a fool’s journey.

Putin knows if he unwinds his plans slowly and feigns cooperation he can dupe Obama and Germany’s Angela Merkel and co-opt their political constituencies. The latter have already rationalized Russia’s annexation of Crimea and will do the same if he slices off more of Ukraine.