Kurdistan’s arguments for sovereignty are reasonable. It is different than Arab Iraq: it is more stable, more prosperous and more tolerant. Baghdad is unable to protect its people, and won’t be able to do so for the foreseeable future. Close to one million Iraqis, including many Christians, have taken refuge there.

In the wake of ISIS advances, Kurdistan now shares a 600-mile border with a terrorist entity that proclaims itself the new Islamic Caliphate. In order to defend itself, the Kurds must be able to acquire their own arms and maintain security relations with other nations. Baghdad has suspended budget payments to Kurdistan. To pay its bills, Kurdistan must therefore sell its oil…

The coming weeks will be decisive. The best-case scenario would be the establishment of a decentralized Iraq with a federal system in the Arab-majority areas, operating in confederation with Kurdistan. The alternative is civil war between Shiites and Sunnis, and the emergence of an independent Kurdistan.