Obama’s "unity government" plan in Iraq is just a mirage

Even if the Kurds were more enthusiastic, the prospect of a unity government in Baghdad would be questionable. Standing in the way is Maliki, who appears to have the backing of Iran as well as the Assad government in Syria. This axis of Shiite hardliners appears set on battling the Sunni al-Qaeda forces without concessions to the Kurds or moderate Sunnis. A broadly supported Shiite alternative to Maliki has yet to appear.

A political fix might be possible if Iran concludes that Maliki must go. But even then, Iraqi forces are unlikely to liquidate the al-Qaeda state, say the Kurds. “We can’t do it alone,” Hussein said flatly. “This is a terrorist organization. They have thousands of fighters. They have got sophisticated American weapons. We are talking about rockets, artillery, tanks, even helicopters. I don’t think with the current Iraqi army they can liberate that area. And our [forces] are putting our priority on defending our area, so we can’t do it.”

Hussein said it would take “collective action” by “a regional coalition” to eliminate the al-Qaeda state. Then he grimly ran down the list of potential actors: Iran, he said, would limit itself to defending Baghdad and the Shiite Holy places. Turkey, which chose not to intervene in Syria, would be even more reluctant to fight in Iraq. And the United States? “This government is not going to send troops.”