Before Obama, the GOP was a party that could not find its posterior with both hands. After the 2008 presidential election, only 34 percent of the American people had a favorable view of the Republican Party, Gallup found, while 61 percent viewed the party of Lincoln and Reagan unfavorably.

The GOP’s numbers haven’t really gotten any better. So why are Republicans heavy favorites to retain the House majority while making gains — and perhaps even taking control — in the Senate? Thank Obama.

Three in ten voters say they will cast their ballots in November to oppose Obama. That’s the same percentage as before the 2010 elections, when Republicans won the House and made gains elsewhere. It’s also about the same as the share of voters who wanted to send George W. Bush a message before the Democrats captured Congress in 2006.