The prospective “Cruz for President” campaign has been getting good breaks, too. The senator’s most probable path to the nomination would involve consolidating the most conservative voters in the Republican Party and then beating a more moderate, “establishment” candidate. That’s a tall order, but it has recently gotten a little shorter.

Moderate candidates usually win the Republican primaries, partly because the party’s establishment usually settles on a candidate earlier than conservatives do. Right now, though, the sort of Republicans who supported Mitt Romney before any primary votes were cast in the last campaign don’t know what to do. They were inclined to support New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, but they now have serious doubts about him — and are waiting to see if former Florida Governor Jeb Bush gets into the race. That means there’s no early moderate front-runner.