When the Cuomo opted not to run, the party was left with the “Seven Dwarfs,” a nickname for the second-tier candidates who competed for a nomination that eventually went to Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. Dukakis lost to Bush, 426 to 111 in the Electoral College and by seven percentage points in the popular vote.

The Democratic nomination race “shaped up late, and the way it did, because of the waiting to see what Mario Cuomo would do,” Corrado said.

The danger for Republicans in 2016 is that an establishment freeze brought on by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s home- town bridge scandal and Bush’s reticence could leave the party’s eventual nominee lagging in preparation behind Clinton, whose supporters already are building voter and donor lists.

It’s the e-mail lists that count in modern politics, said Nicco Mele, a lecturer at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and former web strategist for Democrat Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential run.