“This is a coming divide for the Democratic Party,” said one progressive strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Not only about explaining 2014, but laying the groundwork for 2016.”

The split between the party’s progressive and centrist wings isn’t new, and the looming difficulty of the midterms play only a part in their ongoing conflict. But the threat of losses later this year is exacerbating the existing tensions.

In Third Way cofounder Matt Bennett’s telling, it wasn’t a lack of populism that caused the party’s problems. It was an incessant focus on class-war rhetoric in 2013 that repelled some voters.

“Democrats lost touch with the middle class,” he said. “We engaged in arguments that have intellectual but not emotional resonance. Income inequality is a problem, but that doesn’t make it something that will land in public,” Bennett said.