In fact, 2014 is the only example in modern times of a midterm election in which there is a divided Congress and a Democratic president. There have been three midterm elections in which a divided Congress faced the voters under a Republican president: 1982 and 1986 with Ronald Reagan, and 2002 with George W. Bush.

The 1986 midterms may seem most similar to this year’s elections — the Republicans, under a second-term Reagan, held a small majority in the Senate and many of the vulnerable Senate Republicans had been elected in Reagan’s 1980 landslide presidential victory. Reagan was far more popular than Obama at this point in his presidency; his approval rating in March 1986 was in the 60s, compared with Obama’s ratings in the mid-40s. Yet despite Reagan’s robust approval rating, his party suffered a net loss of eight seats and control of the chamber, which can’t be reassuring for Democrats today.

Based on approval ratings alone, Reagan’s first-term midterm elections in 1982 may be the most similar to this year’s elections. Reagan at that time had middling approval ratings — with a struggling economy abetting his relative unpopularity. Reagan’s party was hit hard in the U.S. House races, with Democrats picking up 26 seats.