If the Ukrainian nationalists had been smarter and more farsighted, they themselves would have advocated a renunciation of claims to Crimea in order to remove this needle in their side, but their desire for a Greater Ukraine has trumped sober political calculations.

Mr. Putin is a more farsighted and coldblooded calculator. He will therefore strive to keep Crimea as part of Ukraine, but as a reinforced instrument of Russian influence over politics in Kiev — and a powerful example for pro-Russian populations in other regions.

It’s difficult to imagine just what the new rulers in Kiev and their Western supporters thought would happen if they overthrew a democratically elected leader. Indeed, since 1992, when Kiev sparred with Moscow over Crimea’s status as part of the newly independent Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian forces stationed there (including the Black Sea Fleet) would not remain neutral if tensions erupted. Denouncing Russian aggression is therefore disingenuous, because everyone knew that Russian involvement was inevitable if the region’s fragile political balance was disturbed. That balance held for two decades, but the Kiev upheaval laid waste to it.