The main reason 2014 is different than 2012 isn’t the quality of the messaging. It’s that the law is now a reality affecting millions of Americans—and more don’t like the changes. The most important test on the ultimate success of the health care law will be whether voters think they’re getting a better deal out of the law than not. And all available evidence, from polling to the government’s cherry-picked enrollment data, suggests that supporters face a tough challenge making the sell.

The actual number of Americans who gained insurance through the law is much lower than the 3.3 million the White House is claiming. The numbers released by the Health and Human Services Department include many people with insurance who were forced out of their previous individual market plans onto the Obamacare exchanges. It also includes those who signed up but never paid for insurance—which makes up about one-fifth of those enrollees, according to a New York Times analysis.

For a crystal-clear sign of the political woes Obamacare faces, look no further than the ad the Democratic House Majority PAC is airing in a majority-Hispanic south Florida district that Obama carried twice. The seat, represented by freshman Rep. Joe Garcia, is one of a small handful in the country that gave Obama a larger share of the vote in 2012 than in 2008—he won 53 percent last election. It’s also one of the media markets where the Obama presidential campaign spent millions of dollars in Spanish-language ads praising the law in unequivocal terms.