About that billion-dollar basketball challenge...

Dear Warren Buffett…

However, your plan is flawed. Before I reveal what you’ve overlooked, let me strike a bargain. If you agree with my point, grant me a job interview. Since we can’t shake hands on it, your reputation as a man of honor is good enough for me.

Base assumption: We can calculate the probability of extreme events in bounded games of chance. True enough. I’m sure your quants have sharp pencils and smarts to spare.

The flaw: We cannot calculate the probability of extreme events in unbounded games of chance. When unknown outside sources can affect results, the game is unbounded. Man is that unknown outside source. Never underestimate man’s ability to conjure a black-swan event.

The fix is in: A billion dollars is plenty of motivation for a consortium of thugs to fix the games. …