Faced with all this, it’s not surprising that elites have risen up. The mass marches of the middle classes began in Caracas in 2002; this month they are out in force in Bangkok and Kiev. This year, they were in Istanbul’s Taksim square. Their grievances are legitimate. Their rulers are depriving them of freedoms and, in most cases, wrecking the economy.

Here’s the problem, though: Most of the elite rebels are no more committed to democracy than their opponents. In Cairo, the leaders of secular political parties conspired with the military to oust Morsi; since the July 3 coup, most have cheered Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi as he has consolidated a neo-Nasserist regime. Bangkok’s “yellow shirts,” having supported previous coups only to lose the subsequent elections, are now demanding that the democratically elected government headed by Thaksin’s sister be replaced by an appointed council. In Kiev, the demonstrators who turned out to protest Yanukovych’s decision to ditch an association agreement with the European Union have demanded that he resign even though the presidential term he won in a free election does not end until 2015.

These tactics all lead to dead ends. Though Egypt is holding thousands of political prisoners and has received billions in bailout money from the Persian Gulf, its new military regime lacks the means to stabilize the country. Morsi’s poor and rural supporters will resist the painful economic reforms the country needs, and some of them may join a violent insurgency. Thailand’s rebels are risking a split between the poorer north and more prosperous south. If Yanukovych were ousted unconstitutionally, Ukraine could splinter between west and east.