But despite being bound by a series of poor circumstances, Hamas nevertheless remains in a temporarily stable position, in possession of sufficient strength to stay in power in Gaza and intimidate internal dissent such as Tamarod Gaza, while lacking the funds, allies, or resources to be much of a threat to anyone other than the people of Gaza. A year after Israel’s brief Pillar of Defense operation, the most news Hamas has recently made was the discovery in October of a tunnel from Gaza into Israel.

The organization has a penchant for resilience and a knack for biding its time. If anything, the upheaval in the Middle East shows just how quickly luck can turn around. While “wait and see” rarely makes for good policy, neither Hamas nor its foes seem to have much of a strategy for moving forward.

Those hoping that Hamas’ relative weakness might bring about a bold move such as recognizing Israel are likely to be disappointed. Though desperate, Hamas relies on resistance to Israel as its raison d’être. With American-brokered peace talks officially ongoing between the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority and Israel, Hamas must preserve its traditional role in the opposition to save face in Palestinian society. This is especially true given the emergence of Salafist organizations that have provided a challenge from the right, giving Meshaal a pressing internal incentive to derail any moves toward peace with a new round of rocket attacks.