Is Ukraine another Egypt?

There is now the real risk that demonstrations in Ukraine will topple Yanukovych’s government—only to find that any other ruler will be faced with the same constraints. This would likely fuel protracted cynicism with democracy and create a weaker Ukraine that is even easier for Putin to dominate.

There is also the risk that Moldova and Georgia will again misread Western resolve in supporting their pathway to membership in the EU and NATO and easily get out of their depth in confrontations with their respective separatist regions, each of which is backed by Moscow.

At the highest level, the denouement of the Vilnius Summit threatens to leave on the western rim of Eurasia a strategic soft spot and perennial source of instability, which could long outlive Putin’s tenure—just as the US seeks to rely on stable, like-minded allies in this region so it can increase its focus on the Pacific rim.

The EU and US need to revise their role as the ‘relentlessly attentive gardeners’ and their focus on the vision of a ‘Europe, whole and free.’ Having Secretary Kerry miss the ministerial-level OSCE meeting in Kiev last week was a mistake. Sitting back and waiting for Ukraine to figure things out on its own and yield to its innate sense of attraction to the European way of life won’t work.