There’s a reason that over two and a half years, no diplomatic solution has been reached on Syria – Russia and the U.S. are fundamentally opposed in their desires. Russia, supporting Assad, does not want to see its client – its last major one in the Middle East – go and says no peace talks can be premised on his removal. The U.S. says that Assad must go and that any Geneva peace conference, originally proposed by Kerry and Lavrov in May, must be predicated on that.

“US position remains Assad leaving power as part of political process,” Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security advisor, tweeted after Obama’s speech. Responding to journalist Jeffrey Goldberg, he said the administration was providing “increased support for Syrian opposition” and had helped the regime become cut off from the global economy. “Geneva process to transition to new government,” he wrote. But Russia does not see it that way and now, with a diplomatic win under its belt, it has no incentive to change.

Russia has not suddenly woken up with a desire to bring peace to Syria. It is brutally realist in its foreign policy, and believes everything is a zero-sum game: if we win, the U.S. loses, and vice versa. It wouldn’t push for a deal to rid Assad of his chemical weapons if it didn’t think he could win without them.