Our assumption is almost always that our real enemy is our opposite. But this is rarely true (see Chuck Klosterman on the difference between a “nemesis” and an “archenemy”). During the 2012 primary battle, populist Rep. Michele Bachmann was much more friendly toward moderate establishment candidate Mitt Romney (her nemesis) than she was to conservative Rick Perry (her archenemy).

This shouldn’t make sense, but it does. Bachmann was marking her territory. As Anthony Trollope wrote, “The apostle of Christianity and the infidel can meet without a chance of a quarrel; but it is never safe to bring together two men who differ about a saint or a surplice.”

Likewise, on the surface, Cruz and Paul are friendly toward one another — which is exactly why (at some point) they will try to destroy each other. In reality, Christie is merely Paul’s nemesis. But Cruz is likely to become Paul’s archenemy.

Here is one predictable example of how things might play out on the ground in places like Iowa: If you’re Team Cruz, you basically put this message out there via a whisper campaign: “Sen. Cruz loves Rand, but let’s be honest. Rand just can’t win with that Southern Avenger thing hanging over his head. And have you read his dad’s newsletters?”