The Social Security Administration’s most recent estimate says the system will become insolvent in 2033. Under the Gang bill, according to Goss’ estimate, even with all those new immigrants paying taxes, the system will become insolvent in 2035. Not much difference there. And after that, when the immigrants hit retirement age and begin collecting benefits, they will increase Social Security’s deficit.

Of course, the immigrants will have children, who will also pay into the system. Put it all together, according to Goss, and immigration reform will add about $2 trillion in tax revenues in the next 75 years, while costing about $1.5 trillion in benefits. That’s a net plus, but not much of a boon, since it is stretched out over more than seven decades — and certainly not when one considers the tendency of federal programs to grow in cost.

So even with reform, the nation’s entitlement programs are on as shaky ground as before. “This means immigration reform doesn’t make entitlement reform any less necessary — it just puts off the depletion date by two years,” says conservative analyst Yuval Levin. “And it’s important to understand that this two-year difference basically amounts to nothing, since projections of the depletion date change by that much every couple of years now.”