Assad's spillover strategy

Whether or not the Reyhanli bombings were ordered directly from Damascus, their effectiveness in deterring Turkey from intervention in Syria is significant. Numerous protests have since been held in Turkish cities, with demonstrators blaming Ankara’s support for Syrian rebels as the instigator for the attacks. Meanwhile, hostility toward the hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees in Turkey’s ethnically-diverse southern provinces has surged.

The echo of the Reyhanli blasts is undoubtedly intended to reach Israel and Jordan, forcing their governments to reconsider venturing any deeper into Assad’s backyard. As Turkey shies away from further involvement and Lebanon struggles to remain neutral, Israel and Jordan have become major factors in the Syrian conflict. Jordan serves as a funnel for weapons from Sunni-Arab Gulf nations and is a key enabler in a rebel campaign to establish a safe zone in southern Syria. Meanwhile, on May 5, Israeli warplanes penetrated the Assad regime’s stronghold on Damascus’ Qassioun Mountain, destroying missiles destined for Hezbollah and killing dozens of elite Republican Guard troops…

A wave of attacks from the Golan Heights would leave Israel with no option but to enter Syrian territory and establish a buffer zone between its citizens and the multitude of jihadist rebels and Assad proxies on the other side. As far back as 2012, reports surfaced that plans had been drawn up in Tehran to lure the Israel Defense Forces into a resource-draining occupation in the event of Assad’s fall.