Why the Supreme Court will recognize gay marriage

According to a new Pew poll published this week, the Supreme Court’s favorability is already at historic lows. Meanwhile, the popularity of gay marriage has never been higher. The latest CNN poll shows 53 percent of Americans think marriages between gay and lesbian couples should or be recognized by the law. Fifty-eight percent of Americans told The Washington Post the same thing. Even Fox News’ latest poll shows that 53 percent of Americans believe same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry.

There simply is zero chance that Roberts would put his Court on the wrong side of history by upholding California’s Proposition 8 or DOMA. At best, Roberts will take a weaselly way out and find ways of skirting the substance of the issue on each case. But even that is unlikely. Instead, same-sex marriage opponents should begin preparing themselves now for the high likelihood that gay marriage is about to become a constitutional right.