Does the Israeli right have a permanent majority?

Netanyahu can certainly take some credit for the right’s dominance. Under his leadership, terrorist attacks have fallen over the past four years and the economy has remained stable, even as much of the world has struggled to lift itself from a protracted recession. Both issues are supremely important to Israeli voters. But longer-term trends are also a factor. The fastest-growing populations in Israel are the Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jews, and both groups lean heavily to the right. Though the data are scant, a large majority of Orthodox voters is believed to have cast ballots for parties that make up Netanyahu’s hardline coalition. Among the ultra-Orthodox, the figure is even higher. The two groups together now make up about 25 percent of Israel’s population. According to some projections, the number could rise to 40 percent within two decades. Since the core motivation for their political hawkishness is largely unchanging—a biblical injunction to maintain Israeli control over Judea and Samaria (their term for the West Bank)—it’s hard to imagine them ever shifting alliances. The upshot: with each passing year, the Israeli right grows stronger.

Of course, demographics can change over time, and permanent majorities are never truly permanent. But it usually takes a significant upheaval—a war or economic turmoil—to loosen the grip of an entrenched faction. The surprise Arab attack on Israel in 1973 helped eventually topple the Labor Party, which had run the country almost unchallenged for nearly three decades. Fifteen years later a Palestinian uprising in the West Bank helped return Labor to office, after a stretch of right-wing dominance. What turmoil might undermine Netanyahu’s standing after his reelection? A badly executed war with Iran over its nuclear program could certainly turn Israelis against him.