Ratings changes: Obama's debate disaster moves the needle

We’ve long thought that in a close presidential race, Florida would likely end up in Romney’s column. Given that it was the president’s third weakest win in 2008, it naturally — along with more Republican Indiana and North Carolina — would be one of the states to fall out of Obama’s orbit in a much tighter race. So we’re moving Florida to Leans Republican, even though the polling there still indicates it is a toss-up. We’re also moving Virginia back from leans Democratic to toss-up. We know that the Obama campaign has long fretted about Virginia, understanding that the 2008 Obama vote was no predictor of 2012 success in the Old Dominion. There’s no longer any compelling justification that Obama has the advantage here. We could see it going to either candidate by a point or two or three.

Given that some reliable political science models have long predicted that this was going to be a close, competitive race, perhaps the debate just restored the race to its natural, tight pre-convention state.