The map is harder for the Republicans than the Democrats — but it also presents opportunities. The Democrats start with more large states. They won so big last time that Romney will have to take back a lot of ground to succeed. Romney is likely to regain the lead soon in North Carolina. Florida now seems to tilt at least slightly Republican: That is, in a competitive national election, all else equal, it will go GOP. Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire all seem to be in play. There are several paths to 270.

The Democrats, it seems to us, made better use of their convention than the Republicans made of theirs. The Republican message, especially in the most-watched addresses, seemed less coordinated, deliberate, and focused. Republicans spent too much time explaining what a nice guy Romney is and how happy he is about female empowerment, and not enough time explaining how he would improve the national condition.

Both party coalitions are strong. In the absence of shocks, presidential races will be tight.