Explanation three: People vote more prospectively than retrospectively. “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” was the question Ronald Reagan asked voters back in 1980. It’s the question Republicans started asking again last month, and for a moment the Democratic spin-doctors didn’t have a good answer. It took Roger Altman (one of the president’s dwindling band of supporters on Wall Street) to come up with one. Sure, things have been bad—but they are about to get better as housing bounces back and the United States fracks its way to energy independence. So the real question voters should ask themselves is: “Will I be better off in four years’ time than I am right now?”
Explanation four: The economy isn’t the No. 1 issue, despite what people say. The more I watch of this election, the more I incline toward this last explanation.
True, when asked to rank issues, voters mostly put the economy at the top of the list. And yet when asked to make a choice between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, their choices don’t seem to be economically based.
Many people subscribe to the view that Romney just isn’t likable.
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