It takes time for a problem to boil over, for expert consensus to pierce the fog of denial, for public opinion to shift decisively.
We see this process today on the same issues: Social Security, the environment and gay rights. The AARP still opposes significant changes to Social Security, but as the potential for catastrophic fiscal failure becomes more real, the prospects for reform are improving. The scientific consensus is solid on global warming, and as the weather grows more destructive, demands for action are likely to become too loud to ignore. And even though the public has voted in 31 states to ban same-sex marriage, the national mood is changing, raising the odds that the Defense of Marriage Act eventually will be swept away.
So too on guns. It may be that nothing revolutionary or evolutionary will soon alter the gun debate. There are nearly 300 million guns in private hands in this country, and the Supreme Court has affirmed that the Second Amendment confers the right to own guns on most law-abiding adults. And the power of the NRA is real.
But when we ran a group called Americans for Gun Safety, we found reason for hope. We worked with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) following the Columbine tragedy, because he was tired of doing nothing to prevent gun deaths. Together, we wrote legislation that would close a loophole allowing people to obtain firearms without background checks at gun shows. It reached the Senate floor in 2004 and passed as an amendment to another bill, but it was scuttled by NRA supporters.
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