Obama’s current level of support from white men without college degrees is so low that “if sustained through Election Day,” it “would represent a modern nadir for Democrats,” Ron Brownstein pointed out earlier this month in the National Journal. Brownstein cited a Quinnipiac poll showing Romney beating Obama 56-29 and a Washington Post/ABC survey putting the contest at 65 for Romney, 28 for Obama among these voters.

A central goal of the anti-Romney commercials is to cross-pressure these whites. Persuading more than 28 percent of them to vote for Obama is a tough sell, but the Obama campaign can try to make the alternative, voting for Romney, equally unacceptable. Conflicted voters, especially those holding negative views of both candidates, are likely to skip voting altogether…

Romney is particularly vulnerable to a campaign designed to suppress turnout because his support is more tepid than Obama’s.