If history is any guide, everyone's VP guess is wrong

While every eventual GOP nominee in the last five non-incumbent presidential cycles began the race as a favorite, the same cannot be said of their VP picks, all of whom were initially regarded inside the Beltway echo chamber either as blips on the political radar or not on the screen at all. …

Though a handful of conservative opinion-makers touted Sarah Palin, and the Alaska governor was included on some news outlets’ lists, her ultimate selection was widely considered the most surprising choice in modern American political history. …

Members of Romney’s Boston-based staff often marvel privately at the extent to which the selection process — being led by longtime confidante Beth Myers — has been kept secret from almost everyone inside the campaign, never mind those on the outside.