Actually, a Walker win could be a good sign for Obama

Over and over in Ohio, I heard Democratic elected officials, party strategists and unions officials noting that the improving economy in Ohio — where unemployment is now at 7.5 percent , down from 10.6 percent in late 2009 — would boost Obama’s chances of holding the state this fall. But then nearly all would also concede, with varying degrees of despondency, that the improving economy was also helping Governor John Kasich climb out of the nadir of dismal public approval that he reached in the midst of his attack on collective bargaining, and would aid his odds of reelection in 2014. In essence, they said, the fates of Barack Obama and John Kasich were now to some degree linked, as incumbents in a long recovery from a deep recession…

Now, the situation in Wisconsin is admittedly somewhat different. The recall election has truly polarized that state in a way that did not occur in the referendum over Kasich’s anti-union law, which resulted in a resounding rejection of the law. In Wisconsin, there are plenty of voters who will be casting their ballots Tuesday on ideological grounds that will, indeed, translate straight to their choice in November — whether they believe the Republican or Democratic visions for economic recovery, taxation, and spending are preferable. But there are also going to be some swing voters who are going to be voting less on those big ideological questions than on the more general question of whether things are going okay. If these swing voters believe that things are gradually coming back in Wisconsin — no sure thing, given that the jobs expansion there has been less clear than in Ohio — they may decide to vote for Walker less out of ideological solidarity than because they figure it’s foolish to rock the boat with the rare act of a recall.