In what many described as a “nightmare scenario” that will mean a polarised and possibly violent second round, Mohammed Morsi of the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party polled around 26% in the two-day first round. Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister, came second with 23% when 90% of the votes had been counted…

Analysts predict a bare-knuckle race over the next three weeks with the Brotherhood mobilising its well-oiled machine to get the vote out for Morsi while the army and police are likely to support Shafiq – despite their official neutrality. On Friday the Brotherhood quickly launched an attack on Shafiq as a “fuloul” (remnant) of the old regime who was “climbing to power over the corpses of the martyrs of the revolution”…

Assessments are divided over the likely final outcome on 16 and 17 June. Egypt’s Coptic Christians will rally round Shafiq because of their visceral dislike of Islamists. Supporters of Moussa will do the same. Morsi can expect to get the votes of some who backed Hamdeen Sabbahi, the independent Nasserist candidate. But not all: “How many showers do you need to wash away a vote for the Brotherhood?” asked one progressive who refuses to back Shafiq at any price.