“We are not seeing amendments heading to the ballot at the level we once did because marriage equality, and LGBT equality in general, is not the wedge issue it once was,” said Human Rights Campaign spokesman Paul Guequierre.

Turnout is also a factor. Older voters tend to vote in higher numbers, and there’s a stark age divide on gay marriage.

As Columbia Political Science professor Jeffrey Lax wrote in 2009: “If policy were set by state-by-state majorities of those 65 or older, none would allow same-sex marriage. If policy were set by those under 30, only 12 states would not allow-same-sex marriage.”