But the new system also suggested the stakes be ramped up after April 1. The idea was for states holding primaries and caucuses after that date to be winner-take-all. But many of the late-date states wanted the nomination battle to still be alive when their date came up, so they stuck with the proportional setup.

That is why, almost into April and just halfway through the primary calendar, front-runner Mitt Romney has less than half the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination. And while everyone’s math differs, it looks as if he has to win about half of all delegates from now until the final primary in Utah on June 26.

Another massive miscalculation by the Republicans was the emergence of the super PAC. In past nomination battles, candidates have dropped out almost immediately after they lose a few primaries or caucuses in a row for one simple reason. Money. Nobody wants to back a loser, so the money would dry up fast. That’s why last time around, the candidate who won Iowa, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, dropped out March 4 after it became clear he couldn’t keep pace with Mr. McCain.