Romney's coronation: Just delayed or gone awry?

Going into February, Romney — on paper — would seem to have many advantages. About a quarter of caucus-goers in Nevada in 2008 were Mormon; Romney should do well there, and the other candidates, save Paul, might not even bother contesting it. The major contests looming at the end of the month are primaries in Arizona and Michigan. Arizona is not as conservative as one might think. As the chart shows, its percentage of evangelical and “very conservative” voters (according to 2008’s exit polls) was almost identical to Florida’s — somewhat surprising demographics from Barry Goldwater’s home state. Meanwhile, Romney has deep Michigan roots; his father was governor and he grew up there.

At the very least, there’s every reason to suspect that this contest will go at least into March’s Super Tuesday, and perhaps much longer. We also cannot eliminate the possibility, however faint, that this field is not yet complete, especially if Gingrich wins Florida. The Crystal Ball’s Rhodes Cook laid out the possibilities last month, and his analysis still holds. Establishment Republicans do not want Gingrich as their nominee, period. Privately, some senior GOP members of Congress have predicted that if Newt is the Republican nominee, the House will go Democratic in November.

Nonetheless, Gingrich will fight hard, using elite opposition to him as a battle cry that has resonance with rank-and-file party members still smarting over the establishment’s “imposition” of John McCain in 2008. That makes the White House happy, even though it is not obvious that a long campaign is automatically bad for Romney. After Mitt’s self-inflicted wounds over releasing his tax returns during last week’s debates and stumbling answers on some other topics, it’s clear that Romney needs plenty of training before any fall showdown with Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton made Obama a better candidate during the 2008 slog; Gingrich might do the same for Romney. Or Romney and Gingrich might destroy each other, with Paul and Santorum, if he remains in the race, inflicting additional wounds on the eventual nominee. Arguably, there are no more presidential tries left for any of the Final Four — it’s now or never. That means no one will hold back.