Santorum’s tie in Iowa is widely attributed to his diligent door-to-door campaigning. The Iowa political hacktocracy is deeply invested in the idea that the retail politicking in Iowa pays off. But it wasn’t paying off three weeks before the voting, when Santorum was in single digits. Gingrich’s erstwhile surge in the polls wasn’t a product of retail voting either. No, Santorum’s Iowa success was attributable almost entirely to Gingrich’s Newtacular implosion. Santorum was simply the last non-Romney standing who hadn’t been torn apart by the news media or Romney’s super PACs.
The most persuasive case for Romney has always been that if he’s the nominee, the election will be a referendum on Obama. But that calculation always assumed that rank-and-file Republicans would vote for their nominee in huge numbers no matter what. That may well still be the case, but it feels less guaranteed every day.
Every four years pundits and activists talk about how cool it would be to have a brokered convention (if no candidate has 50% of the delegates by convention time). This is the first time I’ve heard people saying it may be necessary.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member