Romney's "styrofoam campaign"

If he wins Iowa, as now expected, only two significant tests could derail Romney in January. They are not primaries or caucuses. First, we could see what happens if a pile of negative, radioactive material is dumped upon Romney’s campaign, an unfortunate occurrence it has so far avoided. Second, we may also learn what happens to Romney if the ruptured right consolidates against Team Mitt.

It is entirely possible and even likely, however, that Mitt Romney is luckier than a four-time lottery winner. His noncampaign campaign may sail through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida without, in either regard, being tested. His opponents may all remain in the race through Florida, fracturing the right into impotency. And the Sunshine State is a big, expensive battleground for a TV war. It costs a lot of money just to lose in Florida, much less fund a come-from-behind victory. Romney’s opponents will have little time and less cash for anti-Romney ads.

This gives us a preview of November 2012. Romney’s noncampaign campaign may also be a brilliant strategy for the general election, the perfect way to receive a billion dollar’s worth of negative bullets from Team Obama. Styrofoam is light but stronger than it looks. A few more holes won’t sink it. And styrofoam runs neither hot nor cold: It is hard to love but, for the same reason, hard to hate. A Romney candidacy is more likely to make the general election a referendum on Obama’s economy, not a choice between the candidates.