Paul won't win Iowa

One final point: I’m not sure Iowa, in this cycle, is still the state where organization trumps everything. I think that’s true for Paul whose supporters have been personally committed to his libertarian purity for many years, and are not influenced by the current fretting among Republicans. But most caucus-goers in Iowa are organized around this fervent desire: who is the most truly conservative candidate who has the best chance to beat Barack Obama. Their two main choices are still Romney and Gingrich, and according to the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll they are not very excited about either.