US leverage is ultimately limited, too, but is nevertheless considerable. Obama must now make some very hard-nosed calculations, balancing US interests against likely outcomes on the ground. The spectre of the Muslim Brotherhood taking power, with or without hardline Salafi conservatives, the potential end of Egypt as a reliable pro-western partner, and the implications of such developments for Israel’s security and the looming confrontation with Iran are all factors influencing how Obama jumps.
Critical, too, is the Syrian-style disarray affecting Egypt’s myriad opposition groups that appear unable to agree what day it is, let alone a joint programme of action.
And what if the military really does relinquish, or lose, control and the country topples into anarchy? It is no longer a relatively simple matter of pulling the rug from under a superannuated figurehead like Mubarak. If Obama backs Egypt’s second revolution, the result could be revolutionary in ways Washington might find endlessly disconcerting if not downright dangerous.
Which is why suspicion grows that the US, Britain and their European allies, ever more alarmed at recent events, may privately be content to allow Egypt’s insurrectionary flame to burn itself out, hopefully without too much more violence.
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