Our modern GOP: The establishment gets the nominations, conservatives get the party

Establishment-oriented candidates keep winning for two reasons. The first is that the party establishment has moved to the right, too, co-opting conservatives who might otherwise have overthrown it…

The second reason the establishment wins is that its opponents never unify behind another candidate. In 1988, conservatives who couldn’t support the establishment candidates split three ways. Pat Robertson ran as the social-conservative champion; Pete du Pont as the voice of economic libertarians; and Jack Kemp as the “movement conservative” who could unite both groups. The same pattern held in the next open nomination contest, in 1996, with Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes and Phil Gramm playing these roles. Neither the social conservatives nor the economic libertarians could win the nomination on their own, but their attempt to do so made it impossible to assemble a winning coalition combining the most conservative elements of the party…

The funny thing is that even though Romney is running as the “moderate,” rather than the “conservative,” in the race, his actual positions are to the right of the ones he had in 2008. For example, he signed a pledge to oppose raising the debt ceiling until Congress passes a Balanced Budget Amendment. Like previous successful establishment candidates, he is placating the party base.