Why late starters have become more viable in presidential campaigns

The old formula also called for camping out in Iowa and New Hampshire, almost exclusively. While this is not entirely an ill-advised approach, early state dominance is now undermined by the nationalization of the primary process through cable and Twitter. In years past, Michele Bachmann would have languished in single digits until enough retail politicking in a small space could have catapulted her to a strong first or second in Iowa. This is when she could have expected her first mentions on the evening news, and the real national media coverage to begin. Since only Iowa and New Hampshire cared enough to “vet” the candidates in previous elections, their influence was outsized in a country starved for in-depth political coverage. Now, anyone anywhere can perform their own vetting with a few tweets. We don’t need the early states (as much) to tell us who the real players are.

Bachmania 2012 now seems to have come and gone. Conservative primary voters very quickly sized up and just as quickly dismissed Bachmann, who now seems on her way back to single digit land (leaving room for Palin?). And before her, who could forget GOP frontrunner Donald Trump?

Social media and obsessive 24/7 celebrity-style campaign coverage creates a market for once obscure candidates to be judged by the primary electorate much faster than in years past.