Most of the 1848 rebellions failed. The Hungarians did kick the Austrians out, but only briefly. Germany failed to unite. The French created a republic that collapsed a few years later. Constitutions were written and discarded.
Monarchs were toppled and restored. The historian A.J.P. Taylor called 1848 a moment when “history reached a turning point and failed to turn.”
And yet in the longer run, the ideas discussed in 1848 did seep into the culture, and some of the revolutionary plans were eventually realized. By the end of the 19th century, Chancellor Bismarck had indeed united Germany, and France established its Third Republic. The nations once ruled by the Habsburgs did gain independence after the First World War. In 1849, many of the revolutions of 1848 might have seemed disastrous, but looking back from 1899 or 1919, they seemed like the beginning of a successful change…
It is equally true that by 2012, some or even all of these revolutions might be seen to have failed. Dictatorships might be reimposed, democracy won’t work, ethnic conflict will turn into ethnic violence. As in 1848, a change of political system might take a very long time, and it might not come about through popular revolution at all. Negotiation, as I wrote a few weeks ago, is generally a better and safer way to hand over power. Some of the region’s dictators might eventually figure that out.
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