The data suggests that, for all the press coverage she receives, Palin is not the GOP’s frontrunner by any empirical standard. Republican primary voters may share along with Palin a common contempt for liberals and the news media, but so far that’s not translating into actually support for her as a presidential candidate.

In all three states, Republican operatives and political pollsters repeated one word: Serious. The states take their early responsibilities seriously, they said, and don’t see Palin – with her shortened term as governor, her penchant for public snits and her reality show – as a serious candidate…

A detailed examination of Palin’s polling in the early going suggests that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, the media splash of her late entry into the presidential caucuses and primaries would barely rock the electoral boat. While her endorsement is likely to be a key 2012 prize, pollsters and Republican operatives in the three states repeat the same mantra: Unusual numbers of Republican voters actively dislike her; and among the majority who like her, few think she can serve as president.