Egypt produces no oil and is hardly an economic powerhouse with global reach, but it controls the Suez Canal, pinch point of the Mideast oil supply. If a new Egyptian government, perhaps one dominated by the anti-U.S. Muslim Brotherhood, decides to block the canal, tankers would be forced to undertake the six-to-eight-week trek around the Horn of Africa, driving per-barrel prices to $120 or more and gas prices at the pump well beyond $4 a gallon, experts say.

That could have a disastrous impact on an economy that has just begun picking up steam, especially if any such blockade includes Egypt’s critical Sumed pipeline. “The question is whether that supply gets cut off at some point,” former Obama car czar Steve Rattner, speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said Monday. “Right now, the market doesn’t think it’s all that likely, but that’s a risk.”