President Obama started out very conciliatory toward China, but Beijing perceived that as weakness and walked all over him. Now Mr. Obama is tougher, as he must be.
My take is that China is going through a period resembling the Bush era in the United States: hawks and hard-liners have gained ground in domestic politics, and they scoff at the country’s diplomats as wimps. China’s foreign ministry seems barely a player.
Domestic concerns trump all else, partly because Chinese leaders are nervous about stability and about the delicate transition to Mr. Xi and his team two years from now. A Chinese poll has found that public satisfaction is at its lowest level in 11 years, and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao upset hard-liners by calling publicly for more pluralism (he was censored).
The upshot is that China-Firsters — Chinese versions of Dick Cheney — have a greater voice. Brace yourself.
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