Vulnerable – Nelson (NE), Open (ND), Tester (MT), McCaskill (MO), Nelson (FL), Webb (VA), Brown (OH). As I explained Tuesday, the Democrats have pretty much lost the Conrad seat. Most polling shows Nelson (of Nebraska) in deep trouble. His brand was built upon being a well-liked almost-Republican; with the health care vote I am skeptical that he will be able to qualify as the latter anymore. The freshmen trio of Tester, McCaskill and Webb all won narrow victories in the terrible GOP year of 2006, and all are likely to draw a strong GOP opponent. In a presidential year, they will face a tough fight regardless of the environment.
In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is a very liberal Democrat in a state where a moderate GOPer just won by over 20 points. But unlike the prior three freshmen, Brown won by a wide margin himself in 2006, and there isn’t an obvious top-tier GOP challenger like there is in the previous three states. Still, it is hard to believe the GOP won’t find a tough challenger in this swing state.
Finally, Florida’s Nelson is probably halfway between “vulnerable” and “potentially vulnerable.” He’s a better fit for his state than the other six. But you can’t ignore that the state just gave a very conservative senator over 50 percent of the vote and elected a highly controversial GOPer as governor over a respected Democrat. He may prove me wrong, but I think he starts out on the watch list.
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