2) You can only alienate so many supporters before you’re doomed. Deval Patrick’s share of the vote in 2010 was 7 percentage points lower than his share in 2006. If Obama sees similar proportional erosion, he’ll be trying to win the presidency with 46 percent of the vote.

3) Guys, it’s Massachusetts. Any Democrat who does not mock Red Sox fans has a much larger margin for error and cushion than a Democrat running nationally.

4) The economy in 2012 remains an X factor, but it’s worth remembering unemployment rate in Massachusetts was 8.4 percent in September and 8.1 percent in October – not all that good, but almost 2 points better than the national average. Patrick could at least point to some signs of economic recovery on his watch: “The Massachusetts economy, which relies more on technology and business spending, and less on housing and consumer spending, has recovered from the recent recession faster than the nation as a whole, creating jobs over the past year at about twice the national rate. Since January, the state has added nearly 50,000 jobs, but still has far to go to recover all the jobs lost in the last recession.”