“I don’t want to push this too hard,” said Mr. Fair, 68, a veteran marathoner who has also used statistical techniques to gauge the effects of aging on runners. But there is considerable data behind his election prediction, using his econometric models. One produces a forecast for the overall, or macro, economy, while another uses economic inputs to forecast the national popular vote. At the moment, he says, the data augurs well for the president.

“The model certainly suggests that if the economy is good and improving as an election approaches, it’s very difficult to defeat an incumbent president,” he said. At the root of his conclusion is an economic forecast: he expects a significant improvement in the American economy by 2012…

Another important factor in his forecast, he said, is the assumption that “stimulative fiscal and monetary policies will continue.”