Poll: Yep, it’s looking a lot like 1994

Among those most likely to cast ballots in their congressional districts, 49 percent say they side with the Republican candidate, 45 percent with the Democratic one. This four-point GOP edge puts Republicans in an even stronger position than they were heading into the final days of the 1994 election.

A narrow majority of likely voters, 52 percent, also disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job as president. That’s the same as the percentage of Election Day 1994 voters who said they disapproved of President Clinton’s performance, according to that year’s exit polling…

On dealing with the nation’s most pressing issues over the next few years, 45 percent of likely voters put more faith in the GOP, 41 percent in the Democrats. In October 2006 before they won back the House, Democrats had a 12-point lead on this question among likely voters. Among registered voters most likely to skip Tuesday’s election, Democrats have a huge lead – 55 to 29 percent – on this question, a significant change from 1994 when likely and unlikely voters differed little on this point…

Fully 21 percent of all likely voters in the poll say they have already voted. While polls showed early voters breaking for Democratic House candidates in 2006 and for Obama by a big margin in 2008, now early voters split 47 percent for their Republican congressional candidate to 43 percent for their Democratic candidate.