A lot of analysts think Rubio’s best shot is with Meek as the Democratic nominee; the thinking is that African-Americans will stick with Meek, Crist has a slice of the Democrats underwhelmed with Meek and some center-left types, and Rubio gets the biggest share.

I’m not quite so sure. If Jeff Greene wins the primary, he’ll probably immediately go to work tearing down Crist in an expensive ad campaign. It’s his lone shot, drive down Crist’s numbers and try to win head-to-head against Rubio.