But first, the gloomy record. In case after case, evidence suggests that the presence of natural resource wealth in a country isn’t a blessing but a curse, fostering political instability and, paradoxically, slowing economic growth.

Russia’s revenue from oil gave Putin the power he needed to take the country half way back to Stalinism. Zimbabwe’s farmland, platinum, gold, coal and cotton enabled Robert Mugabe to tyrannize that land for decades. In Nigeria, the impact of $1.6 trillion in oil cash over time has been pollution and poverty along with the black-hooded MEND, the creepy guerrilla group that patrols the Niger River delta, kidnapping and sabotaging…

Rule of law and good leadership at the outset (right now) are likewise crucial. Property rights are primary, not secondary. It matters less who owns something than that the rights of ownership be clear. Last, citizens must know they may claim a share of some form in the mineral wealth, currently, or in the future.

Marketing such ideas is going to be next to impossible, especially after the BP Plc oil disaster. Still, a positive alternative to the Botswana property-rights model is hard to imagine. If Afghanistan and its neighbors made war over resources above the ground, why should resources below promise an outcome any different?