Thus we must consider the pessimistic. The overall economic recovery could be petering out. If that is the case, options are limited. Monetary policy is already running full tilt. The Federal Reserve, like the European Central Bank, has interest rates at historic lows. That monetary reality is coupled with today’s toxic political reality. Any second stimulus is precluded by great anxiety over debt. That could mean government paralysis before a second economic storm.

The most likely outcome is not calamitous. But it’s not good. Financial wise men expect a “sideways market” through at least year’s end. That means ups and downs but generally, that stocks remain steadily in this down and unstable market. That scenario should also frighten this White House, however. No market recovery, no jobs recovery.

No significant jobs recovery by 2012, Obama looks like Jimmy Carter. With recovery, Obama looks like Ronald Reagan. There is another potential scenario as well. Obama did not, like Franklin Roosevelt, focus the full-force of his early presidency on the financial crisis. This president’s inaction would be contrasted against any double-dip recession. Should the market suffer a second crash, Obama could look like Herbert Hoover.